近段時間以來，以比特幣為代表的數字貨幣的暴漲和隨後的劇烈波動，引發了全球範圍內廣泛的市場關注，甚至一度影響到了包括英偉達在內的美國科技股的走勢。而隱藏在數位貨幣背後的區塊鏈，更是成為海內外熱議的焦點技術之一。6月29日，龍門資本董事總經理朱麗潔作為福布斯金融理事會理事，在福布斯官網上發表了題為Blockchain Trends Coming out of China’s Biggest Big Data Expo（《2017數博會背後的區塊鏈趨勢》）的專欄文章，討論了數字貨幣在全球範圍內的最新動向，向英文讀者介紹了出席2017貴陽數博會的所見所聞、區塊鏈在全球的發展趨勢，以及中國創業者在該領域的最新拓展。
以下是文章全文翻譯及英文原文：
近兩個月來，比特幣價格扶搖直上，從5月15日起，已上升58%至每幣2682.59美元，並在6月11日突破3000美元。價格飛漲引發了公眾的一系列熱議，各個公司和相關機構也在探索該如何應對這個新興的產業。就目前的趨勢而言，區塊鏈作為比特幣交易背後的技術支撐，不僅僅是從多方面影響著金融產業，還被廣泛應用在金融以外的行業中。
區塊鏈通過建立點對點的交易，去掉了對協力廠商的依賴並通過管理員設置許可權來控制訪問，從而降低結算、法規監管和跨境轉帳的成本，並增加交易量。其它非金融行業也認為區塊鏈可以幫助其降低運營成本。
美國富達投資集團的首席執行官Abigail Johnson在紐約一次會議上表示：區塊鏈不僅僅是一個能夠更有效解決轉帳效率的技術，它同時從根本上改變了市場的結構，甚至是英特網本身。
但在這次比特幣的熱潮中，有些人並不認為比特幣和加密貨幣會持續地給投資者們帶來價值。億萬富翁Mark Cuban在6月6日的一個社交網路對話中表示，比特幣現在是處在一個泡沫中，即使每個人都總是認為這次會有所不同。
雖然各個國家的行業專家和投資者們對於比特幣的發展前景各執一詞，但關於比特幣在全球市場上的影響，大家都是有目共睹的。2017中國國際大資料產業博覽會（數博會）剛剛於五月底在中國落下帷幕。
現在比特幣的價格飛漲有很大一部分是受益于亞洲市場的需求增長，特別是中國投資者和日本投資者。中國交易所比特幣的交易量位元列全球比特幣交易量前三。中國人對於比特幣的投資已經不容忽視。中國也在不斷地調整對比特幣的管控。2013年，中國央行禁止銀行交易和支付比特幣。而在最近，中國央行對交易平臺的整頓接近尾聲，各個交易平臺將紛紛重新開放比特幣提現。
不僅僅是中國針對比特幣有所動靜，日本在2015年時就開始推動比特幣合法化，並通過了一項於2017年4月1日生效的法案。
在這次2017數博會上，國務院總理李克強發來賀信，並在賀信中代表中國政府對數博會的舉辦表示祝賀。為期4天的數博會，雲集了區塊鏈領域的企業、專家和學者。
中國信通院在本屆數博會上發佈了《全球區塊鏈應用發展十大趨勢》，其中包括：
1.區塊鏈行業應用加速推進，數位貨幣向非金融領域滲透擴散
2.企業應用是區塊鏈的主戰場，聯盟鏈／私有鏈將成為主流方向
3.應用催生多樣化的技術方案，區塊鏈性能將不斷得到優化
4.區塊鏈與雲計算的結合越發緊密，BaaS有望成為公共信任基礎設施
5.區塊鏈安全問題日益凸顯，安全防護需要技術和管理全域考慮
6.區塊鏈的跨鏈需求增多，互聯互通的重要性凸顯
7.區塊鏈競爭日趨激烈，專利爭奪成為競爭重要領域
8.區塊鏈投資持續火爆，代幣眾籌模式累積風險值得關注
9.區塊鏈技術與監管存在衝突，但矛盾有望進一步調和
10.可信是區塊鏈的核心要求，標準規範的重要性日趨凸顯
我受邀在這次數博會上發表了主題演講《金融技術的應用與投資週期》，主要從華爾街在區塊鏈技術上的研發歷史、金融機構在區塊鏈方面的佈局、區塊鏈技術與金融結合的未來趨勢這三個方面就當下的區塊鏈投資熱潮進行了分析。
現在大部分不看好比特幣的理由主要集中在難以建立和管理一個透明並具有公信力的區塊鏈系統。投資者在準備投資比特幣以及相關專案前需要權衡開發成本、政策風險和技術壁壘，並同時考慮到數位資產高流動性的特點。
在這一系列的風險因素權衡中，投資者最應該對一個金融產品的生命週期保持足夠的警惕性。比特幣在今年的第一個星期就增長了20%，很大程度上地助長了加密貨幣市場上的投資熱情。對於判斷比特幣是否是一個泡沫，最直接的一個現象就是在資產荒的背景下，大部分投資者都在炫耀比特幣能給他們帶來高投資回報。
根據霍夫斯特拉大學Rodrigue教授的投資泡沫週期圖，每個投資產品會經過四個發展階段。從最開始的產生投資意識階段、機構投資者買入、到公眾以及媒體增加對該投資產品的關注度並吸引大量個體投資者的加入，並逐漸走入最後一個泡沫破裂階段。根據該週期，比特幣目前是屬於第三個階段狂熱期。所以與其說擔心什麼時候比特幣會被挖完，投資者們更需要留心比特幣現在到底處於泡沫週期裡面的哪一時期，是否比特幣價格已遠遠超過其價值，並能夠做出在估值泡沫破滅之前的一個及時退出判斷。
雖然比特幣價格的逆天飛漲讓人質疑其中的非理性成分，但當我們看到區塊鏈技術目前被各個大型機構採用，至少我們可以用一個理性而積極的態度來看待該技術未來發展的方向。花旗銀行和納斯達克在五月份時達成一個合作以推進區塊鏈的應用，該合作將花旗的支付服務直接連結到納斯達克的區塊鏈平臺。在醫療保健產業，Google旗下的AI健康科技子公司——DeepMind Health，宣稱將使用比特幣底層技術區塊鏈，讓醫院甚至病人自身都能即時跟蹤其個人健康資料。亞馬遜從去年開始就與最大的區塊鏈公司投資者之一的數位貨幣集團（DCG）進行合作，給金融機構、保險公司和企業技術公司等提供服務。
（作者：龍門資本董事總經理 朱麗潔 翻譯：饒欣然）
Blockchain Trends Coming out of China’s Biggest Big Data Expo
Since May 15th, bitcoin price have surged by 58% to $2682.59 and hit a high of $3,000 on June 11th, fueling debate over the growth of bitcoin and how companies and relevant parties should react to this change. Blockchain, a digital ledger that records transactions of bitcoins, affects different aspects of the financial industry and expands the implementation reach to a range of fields outside of finance.
Built based on the concept of establishing peer-to-peer transactions by eliminating the need for a trusted intermediary, blockchain service, allowing pre-determined participants authorization to see transaction histories, brings down settlement, regulatory and cross-border transaction costs and at the same time increases transaction volumes. Other industries also see the potential for lower operational costs.
Fidelity’s CEO, Abigail Johnson, in her remarks at a conference in New York expressed that “Blockchain technology isn’t just a more efficient way to settle transactions, it can fundamentally change market structures and perhaps even the architecture of the internet itself.”
In this bitcoin rush, there’s an opposite wave against the hope that bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market will continuously make money for participants. Billionaire Mark Cuban, saying in a tweetstorm on June 6th, downgraded bitcoin and viewed its pursuers are living in a bubble, though “everyone always thinks that this time is different.”
Industry practitioners around the globe, including China where its biggest big data themed expo “ 2017 Big Data Expo” just concluded last month, dissented from one another over bitcoin’s gain, but at the same time both weigh in on the effect bitcoin brings to global market landscape.
The current increase in Bitcoin’s price is largely backed by the booming demand from Asian investors, particularly Chinese and Japanese. As one of the world’s top three contributors to bitcoin global trading volume, China recognizes bitcoin is too hot to ignore and acts with a swinging attitude on regulating bitcoin. It started in 2013with a prohibition on banks and payment companies from dealing with bitcoins. Recently, suspended bitcoin withdrawals in this country will be lifted soon as blockchain exchanges are close to finalize guidelines with China’s central bank.
China’s works mirror other efforts being undertaken elsewhere. Since 2015, Japan’s legislature pushed for recognizing bitcoin as a legal method of payment, passing a law that went into effect April 1st, 2017.
Amid policy uncertainties, this big data expo, to which Chinese Premier Keqiang Li gave congratulatory note, was viewed as an authoritative window by entrepreneurs, scholars and investors to peek into the future of bitcoin technology in China.
An analysis report “Ten Trends in the Development of Global BlockChain Applications” was published in Chinese at 2017 Big Data Expo by Chinese Academy of Information and Communications Technology, China’s most important organization in information and communications technology industry.
According to this report, the development of global blockchain applications are summed up in ten trends:
1.Blockchain technology will develop beyond recording bitcoin transactions.
2.An increasing number of companies will use blockchain applications to reduce operating costs.
3.Blockchain technology will be improved in multiple dimensions to satisfy different transaction demands.
4.Blockchain as a Service （BaaS） is going to be part of infrastructures for businesses.
5.Blockchain security issues are emerging and need to be resolved through improving technology and enhancing management.
6.Cross-blockchain interoperability is crucial to establish the internet of information and the internet of value.
7.A fierce race in the blockchain patent world is expected.
8.The blockchain investment heat will continue to rise.
9.The tension between blockchain and traditional local network technologies and standards need to be smoothed out by efforts from both sides.
10.Establishing credibility will be the main focus of blockchain.development.
I was invited to speak on bitcoin and relevant investment issues at this big data expo where Dragon Gate Investment Partners was the overseas partner. Though bitcoin market keeps booming, retail investors need to enter and exit cautiously.
Even though most discussed concerns over bitcoin price surround around the difficulty in establishing a transparent and regulated bitcoin trading system, innovation cost, geopolitical risks, technological capacity and high liquidity shall all be aware by investors in assessing whether bitcoin is worth to invest.
On top of them, however, as an investor, one thing you should always be sensitive about is the life cycle of a financial product. In the case of bitcoin, rallying 20% in the first week of 2017, it boosts the confidence of cryptocurrency market. When everyone is bragging about how easily they can make money from bitcoin, this is an alert that bitcoin is in a bubble.
According to the bubble model created by Dr. Rodrigue, investment bubbles are moving through a four-stage lifecycle. With rising attentions from media and governments and a high involvement of institutional investors, public is jumping in bitcoin market for this ‘promising’ investment opportunity. It’s evidently that Bitcoin’s current stage is the third phase of its lifecycle—Mania Phase, before it blows off and bitcoin price declines sharply. So instead of being worry about when will the last coin be mined, investors shall be mindful about which phase of bitcoin’s bubble cycle you are facing and identify an exit before it bursts.
At least one thing we can be positive about is we will continue to witness and embrace a great number of innovative business practices achieved by applying blockchain technology. For instance, Citi and Nasdaq partnered in May on a straight through payment processing that’s built based on Chain’s blockchain infrastructure platform. In the healthcare sector, Google invested in bitcoin-style health record tracking under its AI subsidiary for hospitals and patients. And as an example of combing cloud and blockchain, Amazon at the end of last year announced a partnership with distributed ledger provider Digital Currency Group to create a Blockchain-as-a-Service solution for financial service firms.
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近兩個月來，比特幣價格扶搖直上，從5月15日起，已上升58%至每幣2682.59美元，並在6月11日突破3000美元。價格飛漲引發了公眾的一系列熱議，各個公司和相關機構也在探索該如何應對這個新興的產業。就目前的趨勢而言，區塊鏈作為比特幣交易背後的技術支撐，不僅僅是從多方面影響著金融產業，還被廣泛應用在金融以外的行業中。
區塊鏈通過建立點對點的交易，去掉了對協力廠商的依賴並通過管理員設置許可權來控制訪問，從而降低結算、法規監管和跨境轉帳的成本，並增加交易量。其它非金融行業也認為區塊鏈可以幫助其降低運營成本。
美國富達投資集團的首席執行官Abigail Johnson在紐約一次會議上表示：區塊鏈不僅僅是一個能夠更有效解決轉帳效率的技術，它同時從根本上改變了市場的結構，甚至是英特網本身。
但在這次比特幣的熱潮中，有些人並不認為比特幣和加密貨幣會持續地給投資者們帶來價值。億萬富翁Mark Cuban在6月6日的一個社交網路對話中表示，比特幣現在是處在一個泡沫中，即使每個人都總是認為這次會有所不同。
雖然各個國家的行業專家和投資者們對於比特幣的發展前景各執一詞，但關於比特幣在全球市場上的影響，大家都是有目共睹的。2017中國國際大資料產業博覽會（數博會）剛剛於五月底在中國落下帷幕。
現在比特幣的價格飛漲有很大一部分是受益于亞洲市場的需求增長，特別是中國投資者和日本投資者。中國交易所比特幣的交易量位元列全球比特幣交易量前三。中國人對於比特幣的投資已經不容忽視。中國也在不斷地調整對比特幣的管控。2013年，中國央行禁止銀行交易和支付比特幣。而在最近，中國央行對交易平臺的整頓接近尾聲，各個交易平臺將紛紛重新開放比特幣提現。
不僅僅是中國針對比特幣有所動靜，日本在2015年時就開始推動比特幣合法化，並通過了一項於2017年4月1日生效的法案。
在這次2017數博會上，國務院總理李克強發來賀信，並在賀信中代表中國政府對數博會的舉辦表示祝賀。為期4天的數博會，雲集了區塊鏈領域的企業、專家和學者。
中國信通院在本屆數博會上發佈了《全球區塊鏈應用發展十大趨勢》，其中包括：
1.區塊鏈行業應用加速推進，數位貨幣向非金融領域滲透擴散
2.企業應用是區塊鏈的主戰場，聯盟鏈／私有鏈將成為主流方向
3.應用催生多樣化的技術方案，區塊鏈性能將不斷得到優化
4.區塊鏈與雲計算的結合越發緊密，BaaS有望成為公共信任基礎設施
5.區塊鏈安全問題日益凸顯，安全防護需要技術和管理全域考慮
6.區塊鏈的跨鏈需求增多，互聯互通的重要性凸顯
7.區塊鏈競爭日趨激烈，專利爭奪成為競爭重要領域
8.區塊鏈投資持續火爆，代幣眾籌模式累積風險值得關注
9.區塊鏈技術與監管存在衝突，但矛盾有望進一步調和
10.可信是區塊鏈的核心要求，標準規範的重要性日趨凸顯
我受邀在這次數博會上發表了主題演講《金融技術的應用與投資週期》，主要從華爾街在區塊鏈技術上的研發歷史、金融機構在區塊鏈方面的佈局、區塊鏈技術與金融結合的未來趨勢這三個方面就當下的區塊鏈投資熱潮進行了分析。
現在大部分不看好比特幣的理由主要集中在難以建立和管理一個透明並具有公信力的區塊鏈系統。投資者在準備投資比特幣以及相關專案前需要權衡開發成本、政策風險和技術壁壘，並同時考慮到數位資產高流動性的特點。
在這一系列的風險因素權衡中，投資者最應該對一個金融產品的生命週期保持足夠的警惕性。比特幣在今年的第一個星期就增長了20%，很大程度上地助長了加密貨幣市場上的投資熱情。對於判斷比特幣是否是一個泡沫，最直接的一個現象就是在資產荒的背景下，大部分投資者都在炫耀比特幣能給他們帶來高投資回報。
根據霍夫斯特拉大學Rodrigue教授的投資泡沫週期圖，每個投資產品會經過四個發展階段。從最開始的產生投資意識階段、機構投資者買入、到公眾以及媒體增加對該投資產品的關注度並吸引大量個體投資者的加入，並逐漸走入最後一個泡沫破裂階段。根據該週期，比特幣目前是屬於第三個階段狂熱期。所以與其說擔心什麼時候比特幣會被挖完，投資者們更需要留心比特幣現在到底處於泡沫週期裡面的哪一時期，是否比特幣價格已遠遠超過其價值，並能夠做出在估值泡沫破滅之前的一個及時退出判斷。
雖然比特幣價格的逆天飛漲讓人質疑其中的非理性成分，但當我們看到區塊鏈技術目前被各個大型機構採用，至少我們可以用一個理性而積極的態度來看待該技術未來發展的方向。花旗銀行和納斯達克在五月份時達成一個合作以推進區塊鏈的應用，該合作將花旗的支付服務直接連結到納斯達克的區塊鏈平臺。在醫療保健產業，Google旗下的AI健康科技子公司——DeepMind Health，宣稱將使用比特幣底層技術區塊鏈，讓醫院甚至病人自身都能即時跟蹤其個人健康資料。亞馬遜從去年開始就與最大的區塊鏈公司投資者之一的數位貨幣集團（DCG）進行合作，給金融機構、保險公司和企業技術公司等提供服務。
（作者：龍門資本董事總經理 朱麗潔 翻譯：饒欣然）
Blockchain Trends Coming out of China’s Biggest Big Data Expo
Since May 15th, bitcoin price have surged by 58% to $2682.59 and hit a high of $3,000 on June 11th, fueling debate over the growth of bitcoin and how companies and relevant parties should react to this change. Blockchain, a digital ledger that records transactions of bitcoins, affects different aspects of the financial industry and expands the implementation reach to a range of fields outside of finance.
Built based on the concept of establishing peer-to-peer transactions by eliminating the need for a trusted intermediary, blockchain service, allowing pre-determined participants authorization to see transaction histories, brings down settlement, regulatory and cross-border transaction costs and at the same time increases transaction volumes. Other industries also see the potential for lower operational costs.
Fidelity’s CEO, Abigail Johnson, in her remarks at a conference in New York expressed that “Blockchain technology isn’t just a more efficient way to settle transactions, it can fundamentally change market structures and perhaps even the architecture of the internet itself.”
In this bitcoin rush, there’s an opposite wave against the hope that bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market will continuously make money for participants. Billionaire Mark Cuban, saying in a tweetstorm on June 6th, downgraded bitcoin and viewed its pursuers are living in a bubble, though “everyone always thinks that this time is different.”
Industry practitioners around the globe, including China where its biggest big data themed expo “ 2017 Big Data Expo” just concluded last month, dissented from one another over bitcoin’s gain, but at the same time both weigh in on the effect bitcoin brings to global market landscape.
The current increase in Bitcoin’s price is largely backed by the booming demand from Asian investors, particularly Chinese and Japanese. As one of the world’s top three contributors to bitcoin global trading volume, China recognizes bitcoin is too hot to ignore and acts with a swinging attitude on regulating bitcoin. It started in 2013with a prohibition on banks and payment companies from dealing with bitcoins. Recently, suspended bitcoin withdrawals in this country will be lifted soon as blockchain exchanges are close to finalize guidelines with China’s central bank.
China’s works mirror other efforts being undertaken elsewhere. Since 2015, Japan’s legislature pushed for recognizing bitcoin as a legal method of payment, passing a law that went into effect April 1st, 2017.
Amid policy uncertainties, this big data expo, to which Chinese Premier Keqiang Li gave congratulatory note, was viewed as an authoritative window by entrepreneurs, scholars and investors to peek into the future of bitcoin technology in China.
An analysis report “Ten Trends in the Development of Global BlockChain Applications” was published in Chinese at 2017 Big Data Expo by Chinese Academy of Information and Communications Technology, China’s most important organization in information and communications technology industry.
According to this report, the development of global blockchain applications are summed up in ten trends:
1.Blockchain technology will develop beyond recording bitcoin transactions.
2.An increasing number of companies will use blockchain applications to reduce operating costs.
3.Blockchain technology will be improved in multiple dimensions to satisfy different transaction demands.
4.Blockchain as a Service （BaaS） is going to be part of infrastructures for businesses.
5.Blockchain security issues are emerging and need to be resolved through improving technology and enhancing management.
6.Cross-blockchain interoperability is crucial to establish the internet of information and the internet of value.
7.A fierce race in the blockchain patent world is expected.
8.The blockchain investment heat will continue to rise.
9.The tension between blockchain and traditional local network technologies and standards need to be smoothed out by efforts from both sides.
10.Establishing credibility will be the main focus of blockchain.development.
I was invited to speak on bitcoin and relevant investment issues at this big data expo where Dragon Gate Investment Partners was the overseas partner. Though bitcoin market keeps booming, retail investors need to enter and exit cautiously.
Even though most discussed concerns over bitcoin price surround around the difficulty in establishing a transparent and regulated bitcoin trading system, innovation cost, geopolitical risks, technological capacity and high liquidity shall all be aware by investors in assessing whether bitcoin is worth to invest.
On top of them, however, as an investor, one thing you should always be sensitive about is the life cycle of a financial product. In the case of bitcoin, rallying 20% in the first week of 2017, it boosts the confidence of cryptocurrency market. When everyone is bragging about how easily they can make money from bitcoin, this is an alert that bitcoin is in a bubble.
According to the bubble model created by Dr. Rodrigue, investment bubbles are moving through a four-stage lifecycle. With rising attentions from media and governments and a high involvement of institutional investors, public is jumping in bitcoin market for this ‘promising’ investment opportunity. It’s evidently that Bitcoin’s current stage is the third phase of its lifecycle—Mania Phase, before it blows off and bitcoin price declines sharply. So instead of being worry about when will the last coin be mined, investors shall be mindful about which phase of bitcoin’s bubble cycle you are facing and identify an exit before it bursts.
At least one thing we can be positive about is we will continue to witness and embrace a great number of innovative business practices achieved by applying blockchain technology. For instance, Citi and Nasdaq partnered in May on a straight through payment processing that’s built based on Chain’s blockchain infrastructure platform. In the healthcare sector, Google invested in bitcoin-style health record tracking under its AI subsidiary for hospitals and patients. And as an example of combing cloud and blockchain, Amazon at the end of last year announced a partnership with distributed ledger provider Digital Currency Group to create a Blockchain-as-a-Service solution for financial service firms.
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